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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–2 on winners
spread MAE 12.4
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cal Poly
@
Eastern Washington
|
+8.1 | 156.9 | 77% | 82–78 | ✗ |
Tarleton State
@
Baylor
|
+31.1 | 145.8 | 100% | 41–104 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Arizona State
|
+7.3 | 144.8 | 75% | 66–81 | ✓ |
California
@
USC
|
+7.5 | 156.7 | 75% | 71–66 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Hawai'i
|
+16.3 | 150.0 | 93% | 68–73 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Washington
|
+18.4 | 146.3 | 95% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Michigan
|
+17.7 | 150.5 | 95% | 67–94 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Delaware
|
-1.9 | 152.4 | 43% | 85–84 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.