Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -850 STMN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -8.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -6.9 (+8.1) | 146.9 (+0.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -6.0 (+9.0) | 145.1 (+1.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -7.2 (+7.8) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -4.7 (+10.3) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 12-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 14-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#61) | 6.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#67) | 2.09 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#57) | 3.57 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#14) | 0.647 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 42.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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