Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | WASH -700 UML +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -19.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -13.5 (-8.5) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -12.9 (-7.9) | 141.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -12.5 (-7.5) | 143.1 (-0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -12.8 (-7.8) | 141.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#121) | -9.9 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#125) | 0.52 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#121) | 0.98 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#77) | 0.641 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 16.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 40.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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