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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–4 on winners
spread MAE 13.2
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Texas
@
McNeese
|
+1.1 | 129.2 | 54% | 61–68 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Florida International
|
+9.3 | 149.5 | 80% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
NC State
|
+12.9 | 142.6 | 88% | 49–72 | ✓ |
American University
@
High Point
|
+14.2 | 130.7 | 90% | 73–80 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
George Washington
|
+31.7 | 135.2 | 100% | 64–84 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Pittsburgh
|
+25.2 | 143.3 | 99% | 48–93 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
North Florida
|
+30.6 | 162.3 | 100% | 89–75 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
Wichita State
|
+24.3 | 171.4 | 99% | 66–70 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
UL Monroe
|
-0.6 | 140.9 | 48% | 70–67 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Iowa State
|
+17.5 | 156.5 | 94% | 52–87 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Wisconsin
|
+14.6 | 165.5 | 91% | 84–87 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Arkansas
|
+17.7 | 127.8 | 95% | 72–91 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Southern Illinois
|
+4.6 | 163.6 | 66% | 44–69 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Texas Tech
|
+41.0 | 158.8 | 100% | 64–98 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
SMU
|
+13.9 | 163.2 | 90% | 69–110 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Auburn
|
+22.6 | 156.6 | 98% | 69–102 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Utah State
|
+32.4 | 148.5 | 100% | 83–95 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Washington State
|
+5.3 | 163.0 | 69% | 69–83 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
San Diego State
|
-18.6 | 147.7 | 5% | 80–67 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-7.0 | 129.0 | 26% | 61–62 | ✗ |
Quinnipiac
@
Navy
|
+0.9 | 153.4 | 53% | 74–63 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Boston College
|
+5.5 | 138.9 | 69% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Binghamton
|
-0.3 | 138.9 | 49% | 66–60 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
App State
|
+3.4 | 137.7 | 62% | 53–65 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.