Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -40.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +34 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -42.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -39.4 (-5.4) | 152.0 (+10.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -37.2 (-3.2) | 154.4 (+7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -26.5 (+7.5) | 156.0 (+6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -29.0 (+5.0) | 156.8 (+5.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#8) | -16.4 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#89) | -1.67 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#89) | -2.40 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#59) | 0.339 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 47.8% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 11.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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