Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +33 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -22.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -20.7 (+12.3) | 149.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -19.9 (+13.1) | 151.8 (+19.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -18.4 (+14.6) | 153.3 (+17.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -22.9 (+10.1) | 156.2 (+14.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | AUB 70 – 44 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#5) | 5.8 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#41) | 0.74 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#46) | 2.23 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.743 (#11) | 0.522 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.93 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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