Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USU -2500 MONT +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | USU -31.7 (-19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -28.1 (-16.1) | 142.9 (+35.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -30.2 (-18.2) | 147.3 (+30.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -23.2 (-11.2) | 150.2 (+27.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -22.6 (-10.6) | 144.8 (+33.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#11) | -8.1 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#103) | -0.25 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#102) | -0.22 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#43) | 0.635 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.3% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 22.7% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.25 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 39.2% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 52.9% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 60.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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