Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BC -900 L-MD +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BC -5.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -6.4 (+14.6) | 136.8 (+6.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -4.4 (+16.6) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -4.2 (+16.8) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -8.8 (+12.2) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#250) | -2.6 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#156) | -0.55 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#168) | -0.71 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#55) | 0.518 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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