Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -290 UNCA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +14 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UNF -31.1 (-45.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -22.3 (-36.3) | 156.2 (+7.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -26.0 (-40.0) | 155.3 (+8.7) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -21.0 (-35.0) | 155.7 (+8.3) | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -17.9 (-31.9) | 160.0 (+4.0) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2024 | UNCA 95 – 81 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#49) | -15.2 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#21) | -1.42 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#23) | -2.08 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#53) | 0.276 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 57.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 43.1% |
Game Analysis
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