Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -160 UNF +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +14 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -1.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -2.7 (+11.3) | 158.1 (+17.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.3 (+12.7) | 157.8 (+18.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.1 (+11.9) | 159.8 (+16.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.5 (+11.5) | 161.2 (+14.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2024 | UNCA 89 – 75 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#219) | 2.4 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#211) | 0.74 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#199) | 0.45 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#228) | 0.557 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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