Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -20000 VMI +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +45 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -24.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -22.8 (+22.2) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -22.0 (+23.0) | 144.3 (-3.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -19.4 (+25.6) | 142.8 (-1.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -22.2 (+22.8) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#9) | 0.7 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#6) | -0.49 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.85 (#3) | -0.63 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.877 (#1) | 0.367 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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