Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -6000 RGV +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -14.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -14.7 (-11.7) | 157.2 (+13.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -14.2 (-11.2) | 156.8 (+14.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -13.5 (-10.5) | 156.4 (+14.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -17.5 (-14.5) | 157.5 (+13.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#34) | 3.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#74) | 0.96 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#78) | 1.29 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#70) | 0.570 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 38.5% | 12.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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