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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–8 on winners
spread MAE 12.0
45 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Texas A&M
@
UConn
|
+30.8 | 144.2 | 100% | 46–81 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Kentucky
|
+30.2 | 153.8 | 100% | 68–97 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Northern Kentucky
|
-17.6 | 129.8 | 5% | 76–60 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Florida
|
+28.5 | 162.8 | 100% | 60–84 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Green Bay
|
+0.4 | 152.9 | 52% | 57–82 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Fairfield
|
-2.6 | 126.2 | 41% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Charlotte
|
-1.5 | 155.2 | 45% | 54–60 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
UMBC
|
+7.0 | 135.2 | 74% | 78–68 | ✗ |
Troy
@
West Georgia
|
-5.0 | 135.3 | 32% | 84–65 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Boston University
|
+11.6 | 110.7 | 85% | 60–58 | ✗ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Chicago State
|
-12.4 | 141.5 | 13% | 86–66 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Vermont
|
+8.0 | 138.0 | 77% | 67–78 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Bowling Green
|
+14.4 | 170.4 | 90% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Marist
|
+17.6 | 163.9 | 95% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Duquesne
|
+5.1 | 148.3 | 68% | 80–74 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Notre Dame
|
+20.6 | 148.6 | 97% | 58–75 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Florida State
|
-0.7 | 143.3 | 48% | 61–79 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
UCF
|
+19.4 | 140.1 | 96% | 69–80 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
Villanova
|
+15.8 | 153.0 | 93% | 49–93 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Providence
|
+17.7 | 130.4 | 95% | 48–78 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Ohio State
|
+26.4 | 146.6 | 99% | 30–80 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Minnesota
|
+13.3 | 125.4 | 89% | 47–58 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Georgia
|
+15.3 | 150.1 | 92% | 45–93 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Maryland
|
+28.4 | 141.2 | 100% | 37–108 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
Wake Forest
|
+15.7 | 128.7 | 92% | 69–82 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Louisville
|
+20.9 | 140.0 | 97% | 68–100 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Belmont
|
+14.1 | 155.1 | 90% | 80–90 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Tulane
|
+10.5 | 141.8 | 83% | 57–72 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Kansas
|
+18.6 | 159.6 | 95% | 66–84 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Missouri State
|
+9.4 | 187.4 | 80% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Michigan State
|
+11.4 | 161.9 | 85% | 75–83 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
Northern Iowa
|
+13.4 | 137.8 | 89% | 56–82 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
LSU
|
+26.9 | 146.1 | 99% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
TCU
|
+31.1 | 134.9 | 100% | 48–71 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Kansas State
|
+31.4 | 137.8 | 100% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Iowa
|
+15.8 | 148.4 | 93% | 58–83 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Louisiana
|
+2.5 | 138.4 | 59% | 83–61 | ✗ |
Southern Utah
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+9.9 | 152.0 | 82% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Marquette
|
+12.8 | 155.2 | 88% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
DePaul
|
+22.3 | 152.3 | 98% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Northwestern
|
+15.4 | 139.6 | 92% | 69–72 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Santa Clara
|
-4.6 | 159.4 | 34% | 54–96 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
The Citadel
|
+3.7 | 152.6 | 63% | 76–61 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Xavier
|
+10.8 | 153.4 | 84% | 55–80 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Stony Brook
|
-6.9 | 158.5 | 27% | 86–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.