Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | WGA +800 TROY -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +19 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.1 (-11.9) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.2 (-14.8) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -4.5 (-14.5) | 135.6 (+13.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.9 (-15.1) | 140.1 (+8.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | WGA 93 – 89 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#334) | 2.4 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#324) | 1.39 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.48 (#336) | 2.21 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#315) | 0.638 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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