Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -2100 WGA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WGA +4 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -14.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -15.4 (-19.4) | 152.3 (+29.7) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.3 (-14.3) | 149.4 (+32.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.1 (-15.1) | 150.1 (+31.9) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -11.0 (-15.0) | 152.6 (+29.4) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | TROY 84 – 65 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 80.5 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#148) | -7.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#96) | 0.26 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#150) | -0.63 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#74) | 0.499 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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