Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +71 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MD -27.6 (+43.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -31.4 (+39.6) | 140.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -28.1 (+42.9) | 139.6 (+5.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -23.6 (+47.4) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -23.0 (+48.0) | 139.2 (+5.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 17-2 | 1-12 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#37) | -10.1 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#78) | -2.34 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#32) | -3.77 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#77) | 0.342 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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