Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -1400 SUU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -9.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -9.8 (-5.8) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -10.4 (-6.4) | 147.4 (+0.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -9.0 (-5.0) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -12.0 (-8.0) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#170) | -2.2 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.36 (#1) | 0.67 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.36 (#1) | 0.69 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#40) | 0.484 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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