Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -280 MILW +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -5.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -3.3 (-9.3) | 140.6 (+13.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.4 (-9.4) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -2.8 (-8.8) | 140.9 (+13.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -3.0 (-9.0) | 137.5 (+16.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#307) | -6.7 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#359) | -1.25 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.47 (#353) | -2.08 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#287) | 0.365 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 24.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.3% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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