Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -10000 DSU +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +30 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -17.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -19.6 (+10.4) | 130.7 (-4.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -19.3 (+10.7) | 130.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -17.0 (+13.0) | 130.4 (-4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -18.4 (+11.6) | 131.8 (-5.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | -8.9 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#72) | -0.75 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#83) | -1.20 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#96) | 0.509 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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