Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–16 on winners spread MAE 11.0 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T +20.8 170.1 97% 83–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Morehead State -5.0 142.7 32% 58–63 ✗
Columbia @ Long Island University +0.5 156.0 52% 80–72 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Army +15.2 167.0 92% 70–84 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Michigan -1.5 167.1 45% 80–76 ✓
Elon @ Northern Illinois -4.1 142.5 35% 75–48 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Ball State +12.6 152.1 87% 70–59 ✗
Maine @ Richmond -1.1 132.7 46% 66–70 ✗
Lafayette @ Rhode Island +23.5 153.1 98% 72–86 ✓
New Mexico State @ Dayton +11.2 144.3 85% 53–74 ✓
Coppin State @ George Mason +29.2 133.7 100% 55–93 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Penn State +19.3 171.2 96% 89–102 ✓
Jacksonville @ Virginia Tech +7.8 130.8 76% 74–64 ✗
Iona @ West Virginia +16.8 147.2 94% 43–86 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Kennesaw State +17.3 145.0 94% 78–84 ✓
Towson @ Nicholls +7.2 133.8 74% 70–64 ✗
Southern @ Texas A&M +21.1 150.7 97% 54–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Rutgers +15.0 136.6 91% 63–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Dakota State +9.0 170.2 79% 76–101 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +8.1 171.9 77% 71–57 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Murray State +32.5 160.4 100% 61–79 ✓
Jackson State @ Western Kentucky +16.3 148.6 93% 62–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgetown -2.6 148.7 41% 51–79 ✗
Long Beach State @ Gonzaga +35.4 154.8 100% 41–84 ✓
Illinois @ Alabama -1.9 165.8 43% 87–100 ✗
UC Davis @ Grand Canyon +0.4 163.4 51% 75–68 ✗
Cal Poly @ Arizona State +12.1 150.4 86% 89–93 ✓
UTEP @ UC Santa Barbara +26.4 152.8 99% 79–76 ✗
Pepperdine @ UNLV +11.9 162.7 86% 59–80 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Fresno State +18.2 150.6 95% 83–94 ✓
San José State @ USC +17.2 139.2 94% 68–82 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stanford +13.7 145.6 89% 63–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ California Baptist -0.7 160.8 48% 79–68 ✓
Idaho State @ UCLA +15.9 119.3 93% 70–84 ✓
James Madison @ UIC +6.8 161.1 73% 99–81 ✗
Ohio @ Middle Tennessee +4.1 156.7 65% 81–83 ✓
Miami @ Drake -9.7 150.8 19% 69–80 ✗
La Salle @ UC San Diego -6.0 141.5 29% 67–72 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida Atlantic +6.8 186.0 73% 78–86 ✓
South Florida @ Portland -6.3 141.9 28% 74–68 ✓
East Carolina @ Jacksonville State +4.2 145.9 65% 78–86 ✓
Youngstown State @ Monmouth -5.4 159.1 31% 72–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ VCU +7.3 108.5 75% 69–66 ✗
Bradley @ Texas State -2.6 142.4 41% 82–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cornell +10.7 148.3 83% 86–76 ✗
Toledo @ Stetson -16.5 157.4 7% 103–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Indiana +18.2 146.0 95% 58–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.