Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -1400 MSM +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +28 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -2.0 (+30.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -6.0 (+22.0) | 144.6 (-14.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -0.9 (+27.1) | 145.0 (-15.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -1.3 (+26.7) | 143.9 (-13.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.6 (+26.4) | 143.8 (-13.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | GTWN 83 – 72 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#315) | -0.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#226) | 2.34 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#234) | 3.76 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#210) | 0.627 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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