Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -2500 PFW +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +13 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -19.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -16.6 (-3.6) | 160.4 (+30.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -18.2 (-5.2) | 158.7 (+32.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -15.7 (-2.7) | 161.8 (+29.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -14.8 (-1.8) | 159.5 (+31.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#8) | 6.8 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#35) | 0.53 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#39) | 0.87 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#77) | 0.572 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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