Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PORT +250 USF -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -5.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -3.3 (-2.7) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -3.2 (-2.8) | 142.3 (-0.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.1 (-1.9) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.2 (-0.8) | 143.9 (-1.9) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#303) | -2.4 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#193) | -0.15 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#209) | -0.26 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#127) | 0.460 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.