Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -100000 SOU +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +17 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -21.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -22.9 (-5.9) | 146.2 (-21.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -23.1 (-6.1) | 147.9 (-22.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -19.2 (-2.2) | 147.0 (-22.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -20.7 (-3.7) | 144.2 (-19.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#26) | -1.9 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#75) | -1.36 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#61) | -1.60 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#49) | 0.388 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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