Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USC -2500 SJSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USC -17.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -13.3 (+0.7) | 138.2 (+11.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -14.6 (-0.6) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -13.3 (+0.7) | 139.3 (+10.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -15.4 (-1.4) | 137.3 (+12.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | -9.4 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#172) | -3.88 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#161) | -5.98 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#207) | 0.342 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 11.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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