Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -1300 UCD +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -1.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.0 (-10.0) | 156.2 (-13.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -3.1 (-10.1) | 153.5 (-10.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -2.6 (-9.6) | 151.9 (-8.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -3.8 (-10.8) | 153.1 (-10.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#225) | 2.3 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#160) | 0.47 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#159) | 0.66 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#104) | 0.536 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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