Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -2000 PV +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +11 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -18.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -12.1 (-1.1) | 150.4 (+26.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -12.8 (-1.8) | 147.9 (+29.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -12.0 (-1.0) | 147.9 (+29.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -12.1 (-1.1) | 156.3 (+20.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 3-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#178) | -12.0 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#218) | -1.42 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#222) | -1.85 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#270) | 0.425 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 40.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 38.1% |
Game Analysis
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