Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | IU -3000 UNCG +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | IU -18.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -18.4 (-7.4) | 146.1 (-19.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -21.1 (-10.1) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -16.8 (-5.8) | 143.9 (-16.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -12.8 (-1.8) | 144.6 (-17.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#34) | 0.3 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#68) | -0.44 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#77) | -0.79 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#48) | 0.440 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.3% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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