Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -100000 UMES +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -33.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -25.0 (-7.0) | 151.0 (-11.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -25.8 (-7.8) | 152.5 (-12.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -22.8 (-4.8) | 153.0 (-13.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -22.1 (-4.1) | 150.5 (-10.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#19) | -12.8 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#22) | -2.80 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#10) | -3.88 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.821 (#2) | 0.263 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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