I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Pauley Pavilion · November 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -24.5 Away covered
O/U 130.5 Over
Money UCLA -10000 / IDST +2500
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +14 154 Won
Massey UCLA -15.0 (-1.0)
Massey Totals 118.5 (+35.5)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 93%
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -15.1 (-1.1) 129.9 (+24.1) 86%
Baseline ML UCLA -15.1 (-1.1) 127.6 (+26.4) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -14.6 (-0.6) 129.1 (+24.9) 85%
Efficiency Plus ML UCLA -14.2 (-0.2) 132.5 (+21.5) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA IDST
Overall 23-11 15-15
Conference 13-7 10-8
Home 15-2 10-4
Away 5-5 5-10
Neutral 3-4 0-1
Last 5 3-1 1-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.2 72.2
Avg Pts Against 65.2 72.1
Massey 13.0 (#24) 4.7 (#97)
Bradley-Terry 0.48 (#153) -0.45 (#220)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.89 (#143) 0.09 (#184)
RPI 0.500 (#187) 0.453 (#243)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA IDST
FG% 46.2% 35.6%
3PT% 26.4% 23.3%
REB / G 40.5 41.8
OREB / G 12.8 15.2
AST / TO 1.17 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 40.0%
TOV% 19.0% 19.3%
ORB% 38.6% 38.9%
FT Rate 27.1% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 40.9% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 27.5% 18.9%
DRB% 75.0% 76.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.2% 24.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.