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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–19 on winners spread MAE 10.4 52 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Baylor @ St. John's	-3.4	156.7	38%	99–98	✓
Bryant @ Stonehill	-2.7	151.3	40%	66–67	✗
NJIT @ Bucknell	+26.5	148.0	99%	64–81	✓
Niagara @ Kent State	+13.7	143.7	89%	73–76	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Oakland	+5.8	115.8	70%	68–64	✗
Mercer @ South Carolina	+18.7	151.1	96%	72–84	✓
Syracuse @ Texas	+20.7	178.9	97%	66–70	✓
Radford @ Clemson	+17.0	159.4	94%	51–79	✓
Presbyterian @ Stephen F. Austin	+9.4	132.8	80%	58–55	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Central Arkansas	+2.5	145.4	59%	77–73	✗
East Texas A&M @ Oklahoma	+20.2	142.2	97%	56–84	✓
Lindenwood @ Valparaiso	+7.6	154.7	75%	64–77	✓
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart	-1.0	145.6	46%	54–67	✗
UT Martin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+1.9	155.9	57%	77–81	✓
Princeton @ Wright State	+2.4	150.8	59%	62–80	✓
Oral Roberts @ Ole Miss	+19.9	148.5	96%	68–100	✓
Vanderbilt @ Nevada	+6.7	152.7	73%	73–71	✗
Tarleton State @ Michigan	+38.8	145.2	100%	49–72	✓
Grambling @ New Mexico	+11.1	149.8	84%	58–80	✓
Eastern Washington @ Washington State	+5.3	156.9	68%	81–96	✓
Texas Tech @ Saint Joseph's	-20.5	152.1	3%	77–78	✗
Memphis @ San Francisco	+8.5	148.5	78%	68–64	✗
Oregon @ Oregon State	+5.8	136.5	70%	78–75	✗
Air Force @ California	+22.5	131.2	98%	69–78	✓
Virginia @ Tennessee	+16.5	130.8	93%	42–64	✓
La Salle @ UIC	-3.1	158.9	39%	83–96	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida Gulf Coast	+2.4	143.4	59%	54–74	✓
Ohio @ Portland	-7.1	154.4	26%	85–73	✓
Drake @ Florida Atlantic	+6.0	165.6	71%	75–63	✗
Longwood @ UAB	-4.1	137.3	36%	89–81	✓
East Carolina @ Stetson	-7.0	155.0	26%	71–64	✓
Northeastern @ Florida International	-8.3	153.9	22%	60–58	✓
Middle Tennessee @ South Florida	-1.9	147.9	43%	95–88	✓
Miami @ Oklahoma State	-0.7	164.4	48%	74–80	✗
LSU @ Pittsburgh	+15.8	143.9	92%	63–74	✓
Illinois State @ McNeese	-0.5	136.7	48%	68–76	✗
Presbyterian @ Youngstown State	+4.2	155.0	65%	67–42	✗
James Madison @ UC San Diego	-3.0	150.2	39%	67–73	✗
Kansas City @ American University	-0.0	133.8	50%	60–64	✗
UCF @ Wisconsin	+4.1	151.4	64%	70–86	✓
Bradley @ Wright State	-1.6	152.5	44%	77–74	✓
Seton Hall @ Vanderbilt	+1.5	129.5	55%	60–76	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Wofford	-13.9	138.4	10%	73–81	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Coastal Carolina	+0.3	139.7	51%	57–71	✓
Temple @ Florida State	-3.4	146.9	38%	69–78	✗
Utah Tech @ Utah	+29.7	164.4	100%	53–84	✓
Louisiana @ Liberty	+26.4	127.0	99%	69–89	✓
Monmouth @ Stephen F. Austin	+12.8	129.5	88%	67–72	✓
UT Martin @ Le Moyne	-12.7	140.0	12%	53–65	✗
Lamar @ Akron	+14.9	157.8	91%	72–79	✓
Campbell @ Ohio State	+22.4	130.0	98%	60–104	✓
Toledo @ Jacksonville State	-7.6	163.9	24%	82–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.