Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -340 LONG +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -4.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.0 (-6.0) | 140.2 (+29.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -1.8 (-6.2) | 138.2 (+31.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.3 (-5.7) | 137.5 (+32.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.8 (-6.2) | 141.4 (+28.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#210) | 1.7 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#274) | 2.13 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#287) | 2.90 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#223) | 0.566 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 41.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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