Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD +125 JMU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -3.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.2 (+7.2) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.0 (+8.0) | 146.4 (-6.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -1.4 (+7.4) | 143.9 (-3.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.1 (+8.1) | 139.7 (+0.3) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#153) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#206) | 0.56 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#208) | 1.18 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#298) | 0.461 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 80.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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