Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Athletics-Recreation Center · November 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread VAL -9.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money VAL -425 / LIN +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAL win
Actual VAL +13 141 Won
Massey VAL -8.3 (+4.7)
Massey Totals 154.7 (-13.7)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 54%
Baseline Plus ML VAL -5.9 (+7.1) 145.3 (-4.3) 71%
Baseline ML VAL -4.6 (+8.4) 146.0 (-5.0) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML VAL -4.6 (+8.4) 145.0 (-4.0) 65%
Efficiency Plus ML VAL -4.3 (+8.7) 143.1 (-2.1) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAL LIN
Overall 15-19 16-17
Conference 6-14 10-10
Home 10-7 11-3
Away 3-10 3-12
Neutral 2-2 2-2
Last 5 0-2 1-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 68.3
Avg Pts Against 75.3 74.2
Massey -9.4 (#321) -11.2 (#338)
Bradley-Terry -2.64 (#343) -1.18 (#275)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.36 (#350) -2.67 (#306)
RPI 0.351 (#333) 0.404 (#302)
Shooting & Four Factors VAL LIN
FG% 37.6% 39.0%
3PT% 17.6% 24.2%
REB / G 34.0 35.0
OREB / G 12.0 12.8
AST / TO 0.68 0.81
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 40.2% 43.5%
TOV% 16.1% 17.1%
ORB% 30.8% 31.5%
FT Rate 30.8% 19.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 59.4% 57.7%
Opp TOV% 15.5% 19.1%
DRB% 74.6% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 16.2% 19.7%

Game Analysis

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