Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -425 LIN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -8.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -5.9 (+7.1) | 145.3 (-4.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -4.6 (+8.4) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -4.6 (+8.4) | 145.0 (-4.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -4.3 (+8.7) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#321) | -11.2 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#343) | -1.18 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.36 (#350) | -2.67 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#333) | 0.404 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 17.6% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.2% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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