Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -250 MONM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -15.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -8.9 (-3.9) | 129.0 (+10.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.1 (-6.1) | 128.6 (+10.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.6 (-4.6) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -9.1 (-4.1) | 129.6 (+9.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#188) | -9.1 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#233) | -2.57 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#219) | -3.85 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#178) | 0.400 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.0% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.8% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 28.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 38.7% |
Game Analysis
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