I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
William R. Johnson Coliseum · November 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -5.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Over
Money SFA -250 / MONM +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual SFA +5 139 Won
Massey SFA -15.0 (-10.0)
Massey Totals 130.2 (+8.8)
Bradley-Terry 97%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -8.9 (-3.9) 129.0 (+10.0) 74%
Baseline ML SFA -11.1 (-6.1) 128.6 (+10.4) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -9.6 (-4.6) 132.5 (+6.5) 81%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -9.1 (-4.1) 129.6 (+9.4) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA MONM
Overall 14-17 13-20
Conference 7-13 10-8
Home 8-8 8-2
Away 6-9 4-14
Neutral 0-0 1-4
Last 5 0-3 0-5
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 64.7 70.3
Avg Pts Against 69.4 75.4
Massey -0.5 (#188) -9.1 (#317)
Bradley-Terry -0.60 (#233) -2.57 (#341)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.65 (#219) -3.85 (#339)
RPI 0.503 (#178) 0.400 (#305)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA MONM
FG% 35.0% 35.1%
3PT% 25.8% 32.8%
REB / G 39.5 37.7
OREB / G 15.5 14.5
AST / TO 0.37 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 38.8% 40.7%
TOV% 28.2% 17.5%
ORB% 40.8% 32.8%
FT Rate 19.4% 23.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 55.5%
Opp TOV% 21.8% 15.8%
DRB% 62.3% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 26.0% 38.7%

Game Analysis

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