Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SJU +120 BAY -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +1 | 197 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -2.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+39.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.8 (+0.8) | 142.8 (+54.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.4 (+0.4) | 147.8 (+49.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.8 (+0.8) | 148.6 (+48.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.5 (+0.5) | 148.2 (+48.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | SJU 96 – 81 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 19-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#32) | 15.0 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#24) | 2.28 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#25) | 3.70 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.717 (#13) | 0.672 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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