We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
William R. Johnson Coliseum · November 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -7.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money SFA -400 / PRES +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual PRES +3 113 Lost
Massey SFA -10.5 (-13.5)
Massey Totals 133.0 (-20.0)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -4.2 (-7.2) 127.3 (-14.3) 54%
Baseline ML SFA -6.8 (-9.8) 132.5 (-19.5) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -5.1 (-8.1) 132.6 (-19.6) 69%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -7.1 (-10.1) 127.4 (-14.4) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA PRES
Overall 14-17 14-19
Conference 7-13 7-9
Home 8-8 8-5
Away 6-9 4-12
Neutral 0-0 2-2
Last 5 0-2 1-3
Streak L4 L2
Avg Pts For 64.7 70.5
Avg Pts Against 69.4 72.9
Massey -0.5 (#188) -4.6 (#253)
Bradley-Terry -0.60 (#233) -1.00 (#263)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.65 (#219) -1.51 (#259)
RPI 0.503 (#178) 0.423 (#284)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA PRES
FG% 35.0% 49.8%
3PT% 25.8% 41.2%
REB / G 39.5 30.2
OREB / G 15.5 10.2
AST / TO 0.37 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 38.8% 56.3%
TOV% 28.2% 18.3%
ORB% 40.8% 32.5%
FT Rate 19.4% 21.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 59.1%
Opp TOV% 21.8% 14.9%
DRB% 62.3% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.0% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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