Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -400 PRES +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +3 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -10.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -4.2 (-7.2) | 127.3 (-14.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.8 (-9.8) | 132.5 (-19.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -5.1 (-8.1) | 132.6 (-19.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -7.1 (-10.1) | 127.4 (-14.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#188) | -4.6 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#233) | -1.00 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#219) | -1.51 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#178) | 0.423 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.0% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.8% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 28.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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