Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -200 UCF +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -3.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -1.7 (+14.3) | 149.3 (+6.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -2.7 (+13.3) | 145.8 (+10.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -3.5 (+12.5) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -3.0 (+13.0) | 147.4 (+8.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#51) | 5.8 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#50) | 2.69 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#68) | 4.22 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#24) | 0.771 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 40.8% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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