Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -2000 AF +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -24.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -18.4 (-9.4) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -18.9 (-9.9) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -17.3 (-8.3) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -16.3 (-7.3) | 138.8 (+8.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-6 | 3-13 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#69) | -11.2 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#25) | -2.02 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#20) | -2.48 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.748 (#8) | 0.415 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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