Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | AMCC -800 UTM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -1.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -0.8 (+3.2) | 148.7 (+9.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -0.8 (+3.2) | 147.2 (+10.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -1.1 (+2.9) | 145.7 (+12.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -1.5 (+2.5) | 149.0 (+9.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#224) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#261) | 1.30 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#235) | 2.42 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#271) | 0.613 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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