Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -6000 ORU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +32 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -19.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -19.2 (+12.8) | 143.8 (+24.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -19.9 (+12.1) | 145.3 (+22.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -17.0 (+15.0) | 145.2 (+22.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -18.3 (+13.7) | 140.8 (+27.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 82.0 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#73) | -6.6 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#26) | -1.87 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#21) | -3.23 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#25) | 0.376 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 61.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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