Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +150 KC -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | KC -0.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -0.5 (+4.5) | 127.0 (-3.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -0.4 (+4.4) | 133.0 (-9.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.2 (+3.8) | 131.4 (-7.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.0 (+3.0) | 128.1 (-4.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#276) | -5.1 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | -0.73 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#229) | -1.03 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#215) | 0.523 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 31.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 27.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 37.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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