All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Alico Arena · November 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread FGCU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money FGCU -275 / CSUB +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total FGCU win
Actual FGCU +20 128 Won
Massey FGCU -4.3 (+15.7)
Massey Totals 142.4 (-14.4)
Bradley-Terry 24%
Weighted B-T 13%
Baseline Plus ML FGCU -2.2 (+17.8) 136.7 (-8.7) 56%
Baseline ML FGCU -2.4 (+17.6) 137.4 (-9.4) 60%
Baseline Tuned ML FGCU -2.4 (+17.6) 137.9 (-9.9) 55%
Efficiency Plus ML FGCU -1.4 (+18.6) 135.5 (-7.5) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FGCU CSUB
Overall 19-15 14-19
Conference 13-5 8-12
Home 11-5 9-6
Away 7-9 4-11
Neutral 1-1 1-2
Last 5 0-4 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.0 71.5
Avg Pts Against 69.9 75.2
Massey -0.6 (#189) 1.5 (#143)
Bradley-Terry -1.80 (#309) 0.77 (#129)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.50 (#297) 1.25 (#123)
RPI 0.429 (#278) 0.573 (#86)
Shooting & Four Factors FGCU CSUB
FG% 42.7% 48.9%
3PT% 27.7% 39.2%
REB / G 30.0 39.7
OREB / G 7.0 14.3
AST / TO 0.86 0.55
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.6% 54.3%
TOV% 19.2% 19.2%
ORB% 21.9% 40.2%
FT Rate 12.3% 16.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 16.8%
DRB% 68.1% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 38.7%

Game Analysis

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