Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LEM +135 UTM -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -11.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -5.6 (+17.6) | 142.5 (-24.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -6.9 (+18.9) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -6.0 (+18.0) | 139.2 (-21.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -6.8 (+18.8) | 138.2 (-20.2) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-16 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#319) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#307) | 1.30 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#305) | 2.42 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#191) | 0.613 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 58.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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