Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -700 LAM +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -14.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -9.2 (-2.2) | 151.7 (-0.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -10.3 (-3.3) | 151.3 (-0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -9.9 (-2.9) | 149.6 (+1.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -11.0 (-4.0) | 152.9 (-1.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#183) | -8.2 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#228) | -1.73 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#216) | -2.49 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#136) | 0.379 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 11.1% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 64.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.5% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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