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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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64–27 on winners spread MAE 10.2 91 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Jackson State @ Kentucky +40.4 160.7 100% 59–108 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Florida +16.2 152.1 93% 68–93 ✓
Virginia @ St. John's +10.9 132.4 84% 55–80 ✓
Syracuse @ Texas Tech +18.2 169.8 95% 74–79 ✓
William & Mary @ NC State +11.1 164.5 84% 61–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia State +4.2 144.0 65% 79–93 ✓
Army @ Manhattan +4.0 152.1 64% 79–80 ✓
VMI @ Davidson +12.8 150.9 88% 66–93 ✓
Colgate @ Harvard +4.4 129.5 65% 67–78 ✓
Chicago State @ Indiana State +18.5 155.0 95% 61–97 ✓
Morgan State @ Buffalo +6.2 166.6 71% 73–82 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ East Tennessee State +13.1 166.0 88% 76–87 ✓
Drexel @ Fordham +4.4 137.4 65% 73–71 ✗
Merrimack @ Butler +11.8 120.5 86% 39–78 ✓
Winthrop @ Louisville +18.5 149.3 95% 61–76 ✓
Texas State @ Princeton -1.3 142.2 45% 83–80 ✓
VCU @ Nevada +2.9 138.6 60% 61–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Northwestern State +16.6 141.6 93% 65–63 ✗
New Orleans @ Tulane +23.4 145.2 98% 93–87 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Southeast Missouri State -3.0 156.4 39% 72–64 ✓
Elon @ Notre Dame +2.8 150.2 60% 84–77 ✗
Pacific @ Missouri +24.4 151.9 99% 56–91 ✓
Hofstra @ Houston +24.8 134.5 99% 44–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Creighton +11.2 140.2 85% 74–63 ✗
South Dakota @ Southern Indiana +3.8 161.5 63% 83–92 ✓
Utah Valley @ Murray State +11.9 148.9 86% 77–75 ✗
Green Bay @ Evansville -7.9 154.7 24% 81–98 ✗
South Carolina State @ Alabama A&M -1.6 138.4 44% 82–70 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Northern Arizona +5.5 143.2 69% 74–75 ✓
Rice @ Houston Christian -7.1 133.0 26% 61–58 ✓
Portland State @ Milwaukee -2.8 167.9 40% 74–91 ✗
Pepperdine @ Northwestern +16.5 142.1 93% 50–68 ✓
Utah State @ Iowa -4.0 170.9 36% 77–69 ✓
George Washington @ Kansas State -7.2 151.1 26% 71–83 ✗
Omaha @ Alabama State -1.0 156.0 46% 67–85 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Wyoming +1.5 140.5 55% 61–64 ✓
Mississippi State @ SMU +1.7 167.3 56% 84–79 ✗
Little Rock @ Arkansas +9.9 130.2 82% 67–79 ✓
Norfolk State @ Grand Canyon -4.7 150.3 34% 73–91 ✗
UC Riverside @ Colorado State +10.4 150.4 83% 77–75 ✗
UC Irvine @ Weber State -16.5 132.5 7% 93–87 ✓
Tennessee @ Baylor -7.3 157.7 25% 77–62 ✓
Texas @ Saint Joseph's -10.4 148.3 17% 67–58 ✓
Southern Utah @ San Diego +0.3 150.1 51% 72–67 ✗
North Dakota @ Loyola Marymount +6.4 131.3 72% 77–73 ✗
Alcorn State @ Washington +27.2 130.3 99% 60–77 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UCLA +26.6 130.5 99% 47–80 ✓
Duke @ Arizona -7.8 155.4 24% 69–55 ✓
Wichita State @ Saint Louis -6.5 158.3 28% 88–63 ✓
North Carolina @ Hawai'i -16.7 166.6 6% 87–69 ✓
Georgia @ Marquette +6.2 150.0 71% 69–80 ✓
La Salle @ Stetson -12.2 146.9 13% 92–77 ✓
Florida International @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.7 144.6 44% 76–73 ✓
Marshall @ Purdue +13.8 146.4 90% 45–80 ✓
Presbyterian @ Monmouth -9.7 150.0 19% 71–61 ✓
Delaware @ Vermont -1.2 134.9 46% 71–75 ✗
West Georgia @ Georgia Southern +19.1 161.7 96% 54–64 ✓
Boston University @ UMBC +1.9 142.7 57% 75–71 ✗
Saint Francis @ Georgetown +8.8 137.8 79% 65–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Charlotte +12.7 141.3 88% 79–76 ✗
East Carolina @ UIC +6.0 167.6 71% 72–55 ✗
Northeastern @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.1 136.5 64% 59–55 ✗
Quinnipiac @ UMass Lowell +5.2 148.6 68% 70–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Kansas City -8.2 132.0 23% 67–65 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Portland State +3.3 169.0 62% 91–65 ✗
Brown @ Canisius -8.2 146.4 23% 83–76 ✓
Cincinnati @ Georgia Tech -13.4 153.2 11% 81–58 ✓
South Carolina State @ IU Indianapolis -6.3 151.3 28% 72–62 ✓
New Hampshire @ Marist +15.1 152.1 91% 49–54 ✓
Furman @ Charleston Southern -4.4 149.5 34% 67–46 ✓
Fairfield @ Yale +15.6 139.2 92% 66–91 ✓
UAB @ Illinois State +3.3 154.7 62% 83–84 ✓
Bowling Green @ Bellarmine -0.9 156.8 47% 68–80 ✗
James Madison @ Jacksonville State +0.5 152.2 52% 71–65 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Illinois +27.9 164.1 99% 40–87 ✓
Delaware State @ Mount St. Mary's +13.4 142.0 89% 66–76 ✓
Omaha @ Akron +4.3 151.4 65% 84–92 ✓
Wofford @ Milwaukee +5.6 145.3 69% 74–76 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wake Forest +10.5 136.0 83% 57–67 ✓
Le Moyne @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10.0 161.6 82% 61–82 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Alabama A&M -1.4 124.5 45% 70–77 ✗
Idaho @ Southern Utah +4.7 155.4 66% 67–82 ✓
Massachusetts @ Temple +1.5 154.9 55% 80–87 ✓
Northern Illinois @ DePaul +19.0 135.5 96% 52–98 ✓
UL Monroe @ North Alabama +13.8 155.3 89% 62–74 ✓
Fresno State @ Long Beach State +0.7 140.0 53% 72–69 ✗
Louisiana @ George Washington +17.9 157.5 95% 74–83 ✓
Toledo @ UC San Diego -6.6 158.8 27% 45–80 ✗
Tulsa @ Loyola Chicago +11.7 164.3 86% 53–89 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Queens University -3.9 157.1 36% 74–98 ✗
Lamar @ Alabama State +5.9 159.4 70% 75–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.