Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BAY +170 TENN -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -5.9 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -4.0 (-11.0) | 146.8 (-7.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -3.4 (-11.6) | 150.2 (-11.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -3.9 (-11.1) | 148.6 (-9.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -3.5 (-11.5) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#15) | 21.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#14) | 3.29 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#17) | 5.06 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#12) | 0.728 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 60.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 40.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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