Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -280 UGA +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -5.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -5.1 (+5.9) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -6.0 (+5.0) | 144.7 (+4.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -6.0 (+5.0) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -7.2 (+3.8) | 146.1 (+2.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#14) | 10.3 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#6) | 2.05 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.74 (#5) | 2.36 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.738 (#7) | 0.570 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 44.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 45.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 38.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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