Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -5000 SIU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +25 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -15.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -16.3 (+8.7) | 152.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -16.1 (+8.9) | 148.6 (+12.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -14.3 (+10.7) | 147.5 (+13.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -14.7 (+10.3) | 149.7 (+11.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#27) | 3.3 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#2) | -0.61 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.94 (#4) | -0.65 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#26) | 0.486 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 41.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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