Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -7500 MRSH +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +35 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -14.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.5 (+20.5) | 148.0 (-23.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -13.3 (+21.7) | 145.6 (-20.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.6 (+22.4) | 145.8 (-20.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.9 (+19.1) | 146.7 (-21.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#66) | 0.3 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#33) | -0.63 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#30) | -1.02 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#27) | 0.413 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 43.7% |
Game Analysis
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